diff --git a/terraform/context_plan_test.go b/terraform/context_plan_test.go
index a92956763..099fff1c1 100644
--- a/terraform/context_plan_test.go
+++ b/terraform/context_plan_test.go
@@ -6677,3 +6677,58 @@ func TestContext2Plan_variableCustomValidationsSensitive(t *testing.T) {
 		t.Fatalf("wrong error:\ngot:  %s\nwant: message containing %q", got, want)
 	}
 }
+
+func TestContext2Plan_nullOutputNoOp(t *testing.T) {
+	// this should always plan a NoOp change for the output
+	m := testModuleInline(t, map[string]string{
+		"main.tf": `
+output "planned" {
+  value = false ? 1 : null
+}
+`,
+	})
+
+	ctx := testContext2(t, &ContextOpts{
+		Config: m,
+		State: states.BuildState(func(s *states.SyncState) {
+			r := s.Module(addrs.RootModuleInstance)
+			r.SetOutputValue("planned", cty.NullVal(cty.DynamicPseudoType), false)
+		}),
+	})
+	plan, diags := ctx.Plan()
+	if diags.HasErrors() {
+		t.Fatal(diags.Err())
+	}
+
+	for _, c := range plan.Changes.Outputs {
+		if c.Action != plans.NoOp {
+			t.Fatalf("expected no changes, got %s for %q", c.Action, c.Addr)
+		}
+	}
+}
+
+func TestContext2Plan_createOutput(t *testing.T) {
+	// this should always plan a NoOp change for the output
+	m := testModuleInline(t, map[string]string{
+		"main.tf": `
+output "planned" {
+  value = 1
+}
+`,
+	})
+
+	ctx := testContext2(t, &ContextOpts{
+		Config: m,
+		State:  states.NewState(),
+	})
+	plan, diags := ctx.Plan()
+	if diags.HasErrors() {
+		t.Fatal(diags.Err())
+	}
+
+	for _, c := range plan.Changes.Outputs {
+		if c.Action != plans.Create {
+			t.Fatalf("expected Create change, got %s for %q", c.Action, c.Addr)
+		}
+	}
+}
diff --git a/terraform/node_output.go b/terraform/node_output.go
index 9f64db82d..c70c76e9c 100644
--- a/terraform/node_output.go
+++ b/terraform/node_output.go
@@ -432,12 +432,17 @@ func (n *NodeApplyableOutput) setValue(state *states.SyncState, changes *plans.C
 		// the diff
 		sensitiveBefore := false
 		before := cty.NullVal(cty.DynamicPseudoType)
+
+		// is this output new to our state?
+		newOutput := true
+
 		mod := state.Module(n.Addr.Module)
 		if n.Addr.Module.IsRoot() && mod != nil {
 			for name, o := range mod.OutputValues {
 				if name == n.Addr.OutputValue.Name {
 					before = o.Value
 					sensitiveBefore = o.Sensitive
+					newOutput = false
 					break
 				}
 			}
@@ -451,12 +456,15 @@ func (n *NodeApplyableOutput) setValue(state *states.SyncState, changes *plans.C
 		// strip any marks here just to be sure we don't panic on the True comparison
 		val, _ = val.UnmarkDeep()
 
-		var action plans.Action
+		action := plans.Update
 		switch {
-		case val.IsNull():
-			action = plans.Delete
+		case val.IsNull() && before.IsNull():
+			// This is separate from the NoOp case below, since we can ignore
+			// sensitivity here when there are only null values.
+			action = plans.NoOp
 
-		case before.IsNull():
+		case newOutput:
+			// This output was just added to the configuration
 			action = plans.Create
 
 		case val.IsWhollyKnown() &&
@@ -467,9 +475,6 @@ func (n *NodeApplyableOutput) setValue(state *states.SyncState, changes *plans.C
 			// only one we can act on, and the state will have been loaded
 			// without any marks to consider.
 			action = plans.NoOp
-
-		default:
-			action = plans.Update
 		}
 
 		change := &plans.OutputChange{